What to Expect for the Next Four Years
Ever since the election in November, Project 2025 has come up under extreme scrutiny. It’s been aptly titled the conservative agenda heading into Trump’s administration, and Trump has made it clear that he’ll make that happen. And so far, five leadership roles have been handed off to writers of the Mandate for Leadership, which is a 900 page guide to Trump’s upcoming term in office.
And yet there seems to be little notice among the public on this. A poll by Navigator Research was run back in September 2024, which surveyed registered voters across the political spectrum. Yet it found that only 9% of respondents had a favorable position towards Project 2025, with nearly half of the 1003 people unaware of what it entails. And this serves as the largest problem, as the policies it aims to put forth are heavily impactful towards Americans.
That same poll asked those who knew of its existence what Project 2025 encompasses. And those surveyed made it crystal clear what Project 2025 would focus on, naming off Abortion, Education, Immigration, and Trump himself.
Abortion
Of all the policies, abortion is the least likely to see changes in national policy. Since the decision in Dobbs v. Jackson W.H.O. overturned the right to abortion previously established in Roe v. Wade, both the Supreme Court and Legislative branch are unable to act further on abortion since the right was returned to the states. While changes may be made at a statewide level, Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Brett Kavanaugh, who both supported the ruling held in Dobbs, adamantly stated their opposition to total abortion bans at a state level, specifically stating that “Overruling Roe does not mean the overruling of those precedents [the aforementioned issues such as contraception and marriage], and does not threaten or cast doubt on those precedents. Unless they change their mind over the coming years, the dust has mostly settled when it comes to abortion.
Education
As for education, the dismantling of the Department of Education is impossible without Congressional approval for Presidential Reorganization Authority. This motion must be approved by the senate, which needs a majority to pass the legislation. Yet the action in the senate can be delayed via a silent filibuster, which restricts any further progression of a bill until a super majority consisting of 60 senators vote in a cloture motion. And without the needed majority, the most Trump can do is redirect federal funding for future programs by appointing someone like Linda McMahon, who is prominently pushing for “school choice,” or the expansion of private schooling and alternative options, such as Pell grants for work.
Immigration
Immigration will most certainly be the largest issue of Trump’s second term in office, being elected for the first time under his slogan “We need to build a wall, and make Mexico pay for it” and for his “America First” mentality. Yet his administration is under fire for the support of H1B visa expansions, which are essentially work permits for immigrants with college schooling, allowing them to stay in the country as long as they have a job. As tens of thousands enter the US a year from countries like India and China, outrage has sparked among Republicans for the lack of loyalty to American workers. And the leaders of the party, such as Billionaires Donald Trump, Elon Musk, and Vivek Ramaswamy have separated themselves with the common Republican Voter due to the backtracking on a campaign promise in favor of cheaper labor. This infighting within the Republican Party on where the line stands when it comes to “America First” could further splinter the party, and weaken the support on similar immigration issues.
Bureaucracy
The bureaucracy will likely see the most change, as the “dismantling of the deep state” was a prominent goal set by the Trump Administration. Accomplished by replacing government workers under Schedule F, this executive order would increase the president’s control over the bureaucracy by allowing him to fire workers at will, reorganizing agencies, and further oversight powers. Seeing as this was actually passed in 2020 (and repealed under Biden,) a Conservative court would ensure that these measures would stay for his term. And with Project 2025 “architects” such as Russ Vought headed to the Office of Management and Budget, and Brendan Carr to the Federal Communications Commission, it seems that the bureaucracy will be led by those aiming to put their plans in motion.
Summary
Keeping this in mind, the biggest question now that Trump is headed back to his second term in office is what will be accomplished. A conservative majority in every branch of the government still might not be enough. For one, action in the senate can be delayed through the aforementioned silent filibuster. Without major legislation being able to pass with the 3 person majority currently held in the Senate, Executive orders are likely to be the course of action for implementing Project 2025 policies.
Ian Hsu contributed to this article. Published 10 Jan 2025, updated 14 Jan 2025 for clarity.
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